Coronavirus-Europe could face Italy-like surge within weeks
Some of the world’s top experts tracking the spread of the coronavirus predict that in a matter of weeks, much of Europe could be facing a similar surge in cases that has locked down Italy, overwhelmed its hospitals in the north and brought the country of 60 million to a standstill.
Mathematical models developed by epidemiologists to track the virus show a sharp trajectory of infections in Germany, France and Britain. Spain showed particularly concerning exponential growth, some experts said. The modelers in Europe say a similar arc is likely in the United States, but anticipating the spread is made more difficult by the lack of widespread testing of suspected cases there.
“Italy is about two weeks ahead of Britain and the rest of Europe,” said Francois Balloux, director of the Genetics Institute at University College London. Observations by epidemiologists show that if unchecked, the number of infections double approximately roughly every five days, with infected individuals, on average, capable of passing the virus on to an average of about 2.5 people. “What we are seeing is not rocket science,” Balloux said.
Epidemiologists say that decisive action is required to change the rate of infection and “flatten the curve”. That reality appeared to sink in for some political leaders in the United States and Europe this week, as countries closed schools, encouraged working from home, banned large gatherings and imposed new travel restrictions. French Health Ministry Director General Jérôme Salomon said France must prepare itself for “the Italian scenario.”
Still, some experts worry that governments aren’t doing enough to reduce rates of transmission so cases don’t soar exponentially and overwhelm health systems. A lack of urgency in previous weeks may have wasted valuable time, they say.
Mathematical models developed by epidemiologists to track the virus show a sharp trajectory of infections in Germany, France and Britain. Spain showed particularly concerning exponential growth, some experts said. The modelers in Europe say a similar arc is likely in the United States, but anticipating the spread is made more difficult by the lack of widespread testing of suspected cases there.
“Italy is about two weeks ahead of Britain and the rest of Europe,” said Francois Balloux, director of the Genetics Institute at University College London. Observations by epidemiologists show that if unchecked, the number of infections double approximately roughly every five days, with infected individuals, on average, capable of passing the virus on to an average of about 2.5 people. “What we are seeing is not rocket science,” Balloux said.
Epidemiologists say that decisive action is required to change the rate of infection and “flatten the curve”. That reality appeared to sink in for some political leaders in the United States and Europe this week, as countries closed schools, encouraged working from home, banned large gatherings and imposed new travel restrictions. French Health Ministry Director General Jérôme Salomon said France must prepare itself for “the Italian scenario.”
Still, some experts worry that governments aren’t doing enough to reduce rates of transmission so cases don’t soar exponentially and overwhelm health systems. A lack of urgency in previous weeks may have wasted valuable time, they say.
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